Travel News: Holiday Airfares Hit a Ten-Year High, and Airlines Aren't Promising Relief

By Frank Macek

If you haven't booked your holiday flights yet, the numbers are not on your side.

Hopper's 2026 Holiday Travel Index projects this season to be the most expensive in a decade. The average domestic round-trip fare for Thanksgiving is $402, up 31 percent, or $95, from a year ago. Christmas week averages $452, up 23 percent. Hotels tell a mixed story: Thanksgiving rates are holding at about $170 a night, while Christmas stays have jumped 18 percent to $197.

That's a steep climb from where things stood this summer. When The Points Guy took its first holiday snapshot in early August, using Points Path data, Thanksgiving fares were running nearly 13 percent above 2025 and year-end fares about 18 percent higher. Two months later, the Thanksgiving gap has more than doubled.

So what's behind it? Start with fuel.

Forbes reported in late September that jet fuel averaged $4.40 a gallon, up 15 percent in a single month and 76 percent above where it sat before the Iran war began in late February. American Airlines has said the latest spike alone could add roughly $1 billion to its fourth-quarter costs, and the company estimates that every one-cent move in the per-gallon price shifts its quarterly bill by about $10 million. Airlines are passing a good chunk of that along to passengers, and they're also flying less.

Since early August, U.S. carriers have trimmed about 3 percent of their domestic seats for flights between November 25 and December 31, according to data from the aviation analytics firm Cirium. That sounds minor. It isn't, and Mike Arnot, an aviation industry consultant at Cirium, explained why to Forbes: when an airline cuts a future flight, "it takes away seats from the market." As departure dates approach and bookings pick up, more travelers chase fewer seats, and the ones left cost more.

The airlines aren't hiding the strategy. At a Morgan Stanley conference in September, Southwest's chief financial officer said the carrier had cut its planned 2026 capacity growth roughly in half. United's CFO said lower-margin routes become unprofitable when fuel spikes, and United has already pulled some December flying. American's CFO said his airline would trim some December flights as well.

Don't expect the airlines to blink. On October 9, Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC, "The fares will be a function of what the market bears," adding that Delta isn't seeing any slowdown and that its customers remain resilient. Back in July, Delta's chief commercial officer, Joe Esposito, was even blunter on the company's earnings call, saying "The industry has no other choice" but to charge more as costs climb.

Delta has also argued that flying is still a bargain, and there's a sliver of data behind that. The Points Guy noted that the average $329 fare the Federal Reserve reported for May was about 23 percent cheaper than what flyers paid a decade earlier, once you adjust for inflation. It's a fair point. It's also hard to feel at the checkout screen.

There's a competition factor, too. Spirit stopped flying on May 2, and travel writer Kyle Stewart of Live and Let's Fly tracked what happened on its former routes, finding sustained fare increases in the range of 15 to 20 percent. Looking at this season's Hopper numbers, Stewart wrote, "I can't recall ever seeing a jump that high" for either holiday on a year-over-year basis.

Holiday fares sting more than summer ones for a simple reason, Stewart argues: many households fly only once or twice a year and can't shift their dates. A family tied to school schedules and a relative's dinner table has very little leverage, which is why the tips below focus on timing, flexibility and protection.

Where is it hurting most? Based on data from the flight deals app Going, cited by The Points Guy, the Midwest is seeing the biggest Thanksgiving price jumps compared with last year, while Christmas travelers heading to and from the Northeast face the most sticker shock. For Northeast Ohioans, there's a small local wrinkle: American temporarily suspended six routes this summer, including Los Angeles to Cleveland, citing elevated fuel costs.

International trips are moving the other way. Forbes cited FlightHub data showing international fares have slipped about 5 percent while domestic fares have climbed sharply, and the domestic share of U.S. bookings has dropped by 6.4 points as more travelers shift their trips abroad. Hopper says New York, Miami and Orlando remain the top domestic holiday destinations, with Tokyo, London, Paris and Bangkok leading the international list. It also points to fast-growing demand for Florida, Hawaii and budget-friendly spots across Central Europe, Africa and Oceania.

One small piece of good news: prices haven't exploded this fall. The Points Guy reported on October 9 that fares have stayed high but fairly steady since August. The catch is that last year, both cash and award prices surged in the final weeks before the holidays, and the site warns that every day of waiting now risks a big jump.

Flexibility is also getting more valuable. Most major carriers will let you change a ticket after you book it, or cancel and rebook, and you keep any price difference as credit toward a future flight. The exception is basic economy, which typically bars changes. The Points Guy's Summer Hull went ahead and booked holiday flights at about $500 per person, then set up a fare-tracking tool to watch for a drop. She said she didn't feel confident waiting and risking an even more painful price. Those AI-powered tools will rebook you if the fare falls after you buy, and they take a share of the savings.

Planning further out pays, too. FlightHub data cited by Forbes shows the typical traveler books roughly a month ahead, while those who book more than three months out pay up to 30 percent less. That window has closed for this holiday season, but it's a lesson worth filing away for next year.

Points won't rescue you, either. The Points Guy warns that award prices in most major U.S. loyalty programs have spiked for holiday flights, because many airlines now price redemptions dynamically. When cash fares jump, award rates tend to jump with them.

Then there's the risk that something goes wrong. The Points Guy reports that flight cancellations hit a four-year high in 2026, and that new federal rules taking effect this month may let airlines off the hook for compensation after some mechanical delays. Airlines typically won't cover your hotel, taxi or meals if bad weather strands you, which is why the site recommends booking with a credit card that has built-in travel protections.

ConsumerAffairs adds a warning about thinner schedules. When an airline trims a route from four daily flights to three, there are fewer backup options if yours is canceled, and travelers at smaller airports feel the squeeze most. Its advice: book a nonstop when the price is reasonable, and avoid the last flight of the day, since fewer late departures make it harder to recover from a cancellation.

The bottom line is simple. Demand is strong, seats are shrinking, fuel is expensive, and the airlines have told us in their own words that they don't plan to cut prices anytime soon. If your holiday plans are firm, the smartest move is to buy a flexible fare today and keep an eye on it afterward. Flexibility on dates, and even on destinations, remains the best defense against the most expensive holiday travel season in ten years.

Frank's "3" Insider Tips

1. Book now, not later. Katy Nastro, a spokesperson for the airfare site Going, told The Points Guy that "The worst thing people can do this year is wait" in hopes that already-elevated prices will fall. Hopper suggests locking in flights and hotels before Halloween, which is just over two weeks away.

2. Choose your travel days carefully. For Thanksgiving, Points Path data shows Monday, November 23, is the cheapest day to depart, and the best return options are Black Friday or the following Tuesday. Sunday, November 29, runs roughly 40 percent pricier than Black Friday, and Hopper says fares that day top $600. For perspective, the busiest day ever at U.S. airports was the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2025, while Thanksgiving Day itself was the quietest. At Christmas, Hopper finds the lowest fares on the Monday or Tuesday before the holiday, while the weekends before and after Christmas, plus Sunday, January 3, look priciest.

3. Protect your ticket and your wallet. Skip basic economy so you can rebook if the price drops, keep the difference as credit, and pay with a card that carries travel protections. Favor nonstop flights when possible and avoid the last departure of the day.

Key Numbers: Holiday Travel 2026

• Thanksgiving average domestic round trip: $402 (up 31%, per Hopper)
• Christmas week average domestic round trip: $452 (up 23%, per Hopper)
• Hotels: $170/night at Thanksgiving; $197/night at Christmas (up 18%)
• Domestic seats trimmed Nov. 25 to Dec. 31: about 3% (Cirium, via Forbes)
• Jet fuel: $4.40 a gallon, up 15% in a month (Forbes)
• Cheapest Thanksgiving departure day: Monday, Nov. 23 (Points Path, via TPG)
• Most expensive Thanksgiving return day: Sunday, Nov. 29 (about 40% above Black Friday)
• Lowest Christmas departures: the Monday or Tuesday before the holiday (Hopper)

Sources: Hopper 2026 Holiday Travel Index (via FOX Television Stations, Sept. 30); The Points Guy (July 11, Aug. 5 and Oct. 9); Forbes (Sept. 29); ConsumerAffairs (Sept. 18); Moneywise (Sept. 22); Live and Let's Fly (Oct. 4).